The USA is spending billions of dollars in the Iranian war.1 Strategic fear comes more-or-less free. Like all strategies it requires management. The Mafia knew this long ago, and immortalized it in the phrase, “I’m going to make you an offer you can’t refuse.”2 The war began with Mafia style elegance. The entire Iranian leadership was assassinated in an act of spectacular violence. It was a paradigm example of ‘shock and awe’.
If the collective assassination had been managed properly the USA would have won the war in 24 hours. All they needed was an understanding of fear. Fears are often irrational but there was nothing irrational about what the surviving Iranian leadership were feeling on the 1st March 2026. Trump snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
This is my podcast which develops the theme. It’s about 3 minutes long
A missed opportunity by the USA and Israel – YouTube
Meanwhile the Iranians regrouped. Their sense of collective survival was strengthened because they survived. The USA lost the moral high ground with an insane war crime when they bombed a school, killing 180 children.3
The Iranians were outgunned and the USA-Israeli attacks were unimpeded. Iran used their geopolitical location to attack important infrastructure and shipping. There were 3,000 ships in the Gulf on 28th February 2026. Many ships were valued at $100m or more. Their cargoes were valued at roughly the same amount.
The Iranians used fear. They attacked three ships and terrified the shipping insurance industry. All 3,000 ships had their insurance removed. Shipping was paralysed. And ships are still there six weeks later. The Iranians made the insurance industry firmly believe that they would sink any ship that tried to ‘escape’.
This is my podcast which develops the theme. It’s about 3 minutes long
Conclusion
Trump’s bluster about bombing Iran back to the ‘Stone Age’ indicates he doesn’t know what to do. Internal American politics and financial pressures will probably provide a critical mass and the war will peter out.
Notes
1 The $21,800-Per-Second War: What Iran Is Costing America | WarCosts | WarCosts
2 ‘The Godfather’ a 1972 film
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Bob Dylan on politics and morality