Since February 2026 the USA has blockaded Cuba. The idea is that they will be starved into submission. Medicine, oil and food are all prevented from entering Cuba. Obviously this means that the most vulnerable will die first. The USA is using tactics which would be familiar to 14th century English kings who did identical things for the same reasons. The USA’s tactics are a war crime and it is astonishing that their overt strategy is a war crime.
America’s Cuba war crime siege A 3 minute podcast
Simple foods can be made crazily complex by lunatics with too much time on their hands or poseurs or wannabe celebrity cooks. Ignore them and focus on essentials. This recipe is stupid simple, quick and different. Bruschetta is peasant food so bond with your inner-peasant.
Ingredients
Thick sliced bread of any kind – best if you get uncut and cut a thick slice!
Smooth peanut butter
Tomato
Technique
Dice the tomato – if its small use two
Grill toast one side of bread
Turnover and put a thick smear of peanut butter on untoasted side
Carry on grilling until it’s melted into the bread (30 seconds or so – keep an eye on it)
Get it out and evenly spread the diced tomato covering the whole surface
Carry on grilling until tomato is sizzling (a minute or so)
Voila!
Peasant food suitable for the refined taste of the 21st century that values style over substance. This recipe is stylish and sustaining
Style over Substance
If you’re too posh to acknowledge your inner-peasant, go here
BBC recipes Bruschetta recipes – BBC Food
Trump has been ridiculed for saying, on 17 occasions, that the USA has won the Iran war. But he’s talking about tactical victories. He’s not talking about strategic victories such as the one in Germany in 1945.
Can you win a war 17 times? Three minute podcast
“….we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”1
Rumsfeld brilliantly summed up the uncertainty of war with his *known knowns* insight. When applied to the war between Israel/USA and Iran it reveals the antecedents of a forever war. A ‘forever war’ is one where it’s impossible to think of a satisfactory conclusion because a military solution is pre-emptively ruled out. That’s also applicable to the Russia-Ukraine war. That campaign, 2026 – present day, has lasted longer than the first and second world wars combined.
The great German military philosopher von Clausewitz expressed an insight similar to that of Rumsfeld in 1832,
War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.2
Rumsfeld and Clausewitz are critical to decision-making before beginning a war of choice. Neither the American or the Russian high commands did so.
Putin was seduced by Russia’s magnificent victory in Crimea, 2014. He didn’t understand the unique characteristics of the 2014 annexation of the Crimea. Trump was seduced by reductionist thinking, ‘We’ve got more and better weapons than they have and therefore we win’. This is wishful thinking.
Let’s consider what they should have done. None of this analysis is ex post facto as every input was available to the Israeli/USA high commands prior to their attacks.
The Rumsfeld Insight and Iran 2026
“….we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know.”
What known knowns were available to the USA’s high command on the 27th February 2026?3 The USA has been an aggressive military power since 1945 resulting in 80 years of failure.4 Why did the high command think the February 28th attack would be different? Secondly, the high command knew the war couldn’t be won by bombing.5
Both of these “known knowns” aren’t secrets. The combined Israeli/USA bombing attack should have been ruled out immediately because of Rumsfeld’s insight. The bombing and missile attacks began as an egregious failure of military planning. The attack was doomed the day before it began.
“We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.”
Israel/USA knew Iran would retaliate but didn’t know how. Israel had long experience of Iranian missile attacks which failed because of their ‘Iron Dome’.6 By ignoring the Rumsfeld insights ‘known unknowns’ they planned for Iranian attacks on Israel.
The Iranian attacks actually focused on the USA’s military bases in the Gulf States, using asymmetric warfare. Instead of high-tech sophisticated weaponry, which is favoured by the USA, they used drones. Thousands of them. Most were shot down by the missile defensive systems but many got through. And the Iranians only needed to succeed with a small percentage to cause grief.
Then they pivoted from the USA’s bases and attacked the critical infrastructure of the Gulf State’s petro-chemical industry. Cheap weaponry inflicted long-term economic damage. The war of choice for the Israeli/USA military cost of billions of dollars for the Gulf States through the destruction of their industrial base.
Applying Rumsfeld’s ‘known unknowns’ it would have been revealed that (1) Iranians knew the ‘Iron Dome’ was effective and, (2) the Gulf States were very difficult to defend. Therefore, the war ought to have been cancelled.
“But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
It seems the Israeli/USA attack couldn’t have been cancelled by “unknown unknowns”. After all, how can something, which is unknown, be decisive? Von Clausewitz suggests that an unknown can be considered,
A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.
Many things were known about the Iranian military by Israel/USA. One of which was that Iran was militarily inferior. Iran’s high command knew this too. They knew they had to play to their strengths. This turned out to be geography. A geographical asset isn’t a secret. What’s critical is using, “skilled intelligence,” to discern what is a strategic military asset. Iran did and the Israeli/USA didn’t. The Israelis and the USA were trapped in bounded rationality because they weren’t using philosophical tools of analysis.
All that was needed was to know that the Straits of Hormuz are (1) narrow and (2) are used by shipping for 20% of global oil and 33% of global fertilizer. Iran’s high command knew slugging it out with the Israeli/USA military was lunacy. The Israel/USA attack was predicated on this fact but they didn’t use Rumsfeld’s ‘unknown unknown’ concept and they absolutely weren’t using Clausewitz’s ‘skilled intelligence.’ Iranblockaded the Straits of Hormuz with cheap drones and uncrewed, attack boats achieving a decisive military edge. Against all the odds.
Conclusion
Gung-ho high commands egged on by politicians don’t use philosophy as a key skill. Critical thinking like that of Rumsfeld and Clausewitz might be inconvenient but it is essential to military decision-making.
Notes
1 There are unknown unknowns – Wikipedia
3 This is the day before the attack began
4 80 years of American military failure A podcast 3 minutes long. The only unequivocal success they have had was in 1991 with the liberation of Kuwait from Saddam Hussain’s Iraq.
5 Bombing always fails Another 3 minute podcast Apart from the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing has never been decisive
Rumsfeld’s *Known, Knowns* speech goes down in history as one of the greatest statements of warfare. In just a few lines he demonstrated that all war is a gamble. This podcast uses those words to analyse the Iranian war in Rumsfeld’s terms. It is very, very revealing.
Forever wars and philosophy – YouTube It is 3 minutes as usual
For I trace the beginnings of British foreign investment to the treasure which Drake stole from Spain in 1580. In that year he returned to England bringing with him the prodigious spoils of the Golden Hind. Queen Elizabeth was a considerable shareholder in the syndicate which had financed the expedition. Out of her share she paid off the whole of England’s foreign debt, balanced her Budget, and found herself with about £40,000 in hand. This she invested in the Levant Company—which prospered. Out of the profits of the Levant Company, the East India Company was founded; and the profits of this great enterprise were the foundation of England’s subsequent foreign investment. Now it happens that £40,000 accumulating at 3¼ per cent compound interest approximately corresponds to the actual volume of England’s foreign investments at various dates, and would actually amount to-day to the total of £4,000,000,000 which I have already quoted as being what our foreign investments now are. Thus, every £1 which Drake brought home in 1580 has now become £100,000*. Such is the power of compound interest! (my emphasis)
Note
Essays in Persuasion, by John Maynard Keynes Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren 1930
Jim went into a pub and said to the landlord: ‘If you give me free drinks all night, I’ll entertain your customers and they’ll stay all night buying drinks.’
“How will you do that?”
Jim put his hamster on the piano. The hamster began playing the greatest piano music anyone had heard.
“That’s incredible! Have you got anything else?”
Jim put his parrot on the bar. The hamster played the piano and the parrot sang along. He was like Pavarotti. Everyone was amazed and stayed all night drinking.
The landlord was delighted. “I must have these animals. Will you sell them to me?’
Jim said no.
“Will you sell one?”
“OK, I’ll sell the parrot for £100.”
Fred whispered to Jim and said: “That’s stupid selling a clever parrot for a £100.”
“The hamster is a ventriloquist.”
(this joke has been modified)
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