Nigel’s Triumph

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A Windfall Tax on Owner-Occupied Houses

Why are we taxing working people more than billionaires? Tax wealth, not work.  Gary Stephenson author of The Trading Game (2024)

Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on houses that are usually called buy-to-let.1 When sold, they are subject to CGT on capital profits. An owner-occupied home isn’t taxed. Selling owner-occupied houses usually generates windfall profits (see below). Capital generated from owner-occupied houses is privileged and very substantial amounts of untaxed capital creates a ‘cascade of wealth’.2

Britain’s owner-occupied housing is substantial. Nationally, its part of the wealth of the nation amounts to £8.7 trillion.3 Owner-occupied housing is two-thirds of Britain’s £12.2tr wealth.4 Successive governments ignore home-owners’ tax privileges. This reflects the biases of parliamentarians and, importantly, their voters.

People move house about every ten years5 and this is the guide period for this blog.

General inflation rose 38.4% between 2015 and 2025,6 with wage inflation outstripping that with a 43% increase.

London’s house price inflation 2015-25 was 99%7 comfortably exceeding general and wage inflation. London’s home-owners, on average enjoyed capital gains of about 56%. (Occasional short periods of negative inflation are blips.8)

Case Studies

Didsbury, Manchester Property sold in 2015 for £310,000 and for sale at £595,000 in 2025.9 This is a 92% increase in value. In cash terms it’s £285,000 over the decade, which is £2,375 per month tax free. The windfall profit is 49%.

Ocean Village, Southampton Property sold in 2013 for £395,000 and for sale at £600,000 in 2025.10 This represents a 52% increase in value. In cash terms that’s £205,000 over 12 years which is £1,420 per month tax free. The windfall profit is 9%.

Edinburgh Property sold in 2015 for £400,000 and re-sold in 2024 for £755,000.11 This represents a 88.7% increase in value. In cash terms it’s £355,000 over nine years which is £3,290 per month tax free. The windfall profit is 45.7%.

Windfall profits taxed at 18% CGT

Not applying CGT means that home-owners are privileged. It amounts to a massive untaxed injection of capital into a specific group of people via untaxed windfall gains. A gigantic distortion of this sort encourages property flipping where ‘owner-occupied’ houses become a business. Houses are bought and sold to take advantage of the opportunity for a tax-free income.12

The case study sampled three houses across Britain which avoids the turbo-charged London housing market. However, “….the number of UK residential transactions in June 2025 is 93,530…”13 Those 93,530 CGT house sales could provide a multi-billion pounds revenue stream per month. This would be sharp improvement on enforcing poverty by salami-slicing the welfare budget.

Addendum: Windfall Taxes

“A windfall tax is a tax levied by governments against certain industries when economic conditions allow those industries to experience significantly above-average profits. Windfall taxes are primarily levied on companies in the targeted industry that have benefited the most from the economic windfall, most often commodity-based businesses….The primary objective of windfall taxes is to appropriate a portion of these extraordinary profits, which are perceived to exceed normal returns, for the public good.”(my emphasis)14

Notes

1 Guide to Landlord Capital Gains Tax | CGT Relief | Xero UK

2 Why the cascade of wealth has dried up | The Independent | The Independent

3 Savills UK | UK housing value hit a record high of £8.68 trillion in 2022 with gains favouring owner-occupiers rather than landlords

4 National balance sheet estimates for the UK – Office for National Statistics

5 Savills Blog | How long are people staying in the same home?

6 Inflation calculator | Bank of England

7 London: monthly house prices index 2015-2025| Statista

8 UK House Price Index – Office for National Statistics

9 4 bedroom terraced house for sale in Trafalgar Place, Palatine Road, Didsbury, M20

10 3 bedroom house for sale in Calshot Court, Ocean Village, SO14

11 House Price History

12 House flipping : Learn how to property flip in the UK | Finder UK

13 UK monthly property transactions commentary – GOV.UK 14 Windfall Tax: Definition, Purposes, and Examples

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Frankie Howerd at the Oxford Union*

“Because you are students, so naturally to you I’m not what you call an academic, and no way at all could you call me an intellectual. Which is why I feel so at home here tonight.” *The Oxford (University) Union is an elite debating society

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India’s justice system

Three years ago, after pondering a dispute for 16 years, the supreme court sent back a 60-year-old land case for fresh adjudication to a lower court, which had already taken over 30 years to give its judgment in 2006.

Source: Inside India’s endless trials – Marginal REVOLUTION

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Cooking for Slackers: A bacon sandwich

The ‘Mission Statement’ of Cooking for Slackers says food should be cheap, quick and cheerful. A bacon sandwich is a multi-purpose meal. It cures hangovers, it’s one in the eye for food fascists, it’s incredibly tasty, minimalist, fast, cheap, and cheerful. No Slacker can live a full life without a bacon sandwich

Ingredients

Two thick slices of white bread

Four rashers of smoked bacon

Ketchup

Technique

Butter the bread with gleeful enthusiasm

Heat up frying pan with oil or rely on the fat from the bacon

Using a fork or, better, a wooden spatula, keep the bacon from over-cooking

(This is controversial. Many Slackers feel it isn’t possible to over-cook bacon)

Crispy bacon is my favourite but cook to taste

Put all four rashers onto the buttered bread

Ketchup to taste

Voila!

Outcome

Glorious food in five minutes.

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Hidden homelessness?

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Book Review: Ben Elton ~ Inconceivable (1999)

Sadly, I read this book the same week it was announced that fertility levels in Britain were at a record low. All of which means that this book is apposite. Thousands – tens of thousands – of people are going through, or will go through, the horrors of *trying* for a baby. Where sex ceases to be joyful but is a carefully timed and monitored event.

Ben Elton is a brilliant writer. He’s witty, intelligent, empathetic, and untouched by a desire to please a focus group. The heart-rending story maps the twin narrative of husband and wife as they navigate the NHS, private medicine, medical interventions, and their friends.

But, this horror story isn’t written as a train crash. It is written as an intensely human story of a commonplace experience.

A novel by Elton guarantees wit. And this lightens the mood. I was moved and entertained by this novel and firmly recommend it.

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War Studies: Britain’s Civil War (aka The Troubles), 1968-98

The British civil war was centred in northern Ireland and later migrated to the mainland. Assassinations, atrocities, the breakdown of law and order, internment, loss of civil liberties and state repression occurred over 30 years. These techniques had failed when used to try to sustain the British empire. Three decades of civil war meant brutal acts of violence in northern Ireland and mainland Britain became ‘normal’ by the mid-1990s.

Skillful diplomacy and ‘war weariness’ led to the Good Friday Agreement, 1998, which ended a savage period in British history.

The disastrous ‘H’ blocks at Long Kesh for the internment of IRA suspects, 1971

IRA street patrols which both protected Roman Catholics and intimidated them

The massive Baltic Tower explosion in the city of London, 1992

The destruction of the Baltic Tower in the city of London in 1992
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Next we burn the books!

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Why weren’t Auschwitz’s railway lines bombed?

In desperation, some Jewish leaders asked the Allies to bomb the railway lines  leading to the extermination camps and even Auschwitz itself. The response…was negative…In fact, Allied aircraft  were already flying over Auschwitz, bombing nearby industrial targets and dropping supplies to the Polish resistance in Warsaw….In the end, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the Allied failure to do more to save Jewish lives derived not merely from a lack initiative but also lack of sympathy.

Tim Bouverie Allies at War pp438-9

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