Odeboyz's Blog

Background

Warfare involves finding competitive advantages. David and Goliath is the classic example. David overcame Goliath’s size advantage with technology. Technological advances create defensive antidotes until they are, in their turn, overcome. Defensive walls, for example, were effective until high powered cannons were invented. In the First World War, trenches were effective until tanks drove across them.

Warfare technology is constantly evolving. ‘This year’s super weapon will be obsolete tomorrow,’ should be front and centre in every general’s mind. Mocking remarks about them fighting the last war highlights their inability to learn from experience. The French Maginot Line defensive system was built in the 1930s because their strategic thinking was anchored in trench warfare. It was obsolete; technology had moved on. Amazingly Israel spent $6 billion in the 2000s on their wall. Their smart wall was vulnerable like all other walls being penetrated in 2023.

Discussion

Tom Cruise’s film Top Gun: Maverick was a worldwide hit.¹ The narrative depends on pilots with courage and expertise. Cruise’s film depended on a legacy memory of second world war fighter pilot ‘aces’. British pilots in 1940-1, had gladiator ‘dog-fights’, with Germans. They lived or died as heroes. Heroic pilots won’t exist in the future.² Generation 6 fighter planes are beyond the capacity of pilots to control and will be pilotless. Britain’s latest fighter plane in development, ‘Tempest,’ is designed as,

“An aircraft, manned or unmanned, whose prime function is to conduct air-to-air and/or air-to-surface combat operations in a hostile and/or contested environment, whilst having the ability to concurrently conduct surveillance, reconnaissance, electronic warfare and command and control tasks.”³ (my emphasis)

The Ukraine-Russia war shows tanks are as relevant to modern warfare as cavalry charges at the battle of the Somme, 1916.⁴

A Western defence source told the BBC that the British-made and supplied Challenger 2 tank in Ukraine was initially immobilised by a mine. That mine explosion caused a fire in the rear fuel tank, at which point the Ukrainian crew of four evacuated the tank to safety. The Western defence source said that while the empty tank was immobilised, it was then targeted by a Russian Lancet loitering drone, which destroyed it.⁵ (my emphasis)

A £4.2 million pound Challenger 2 tank was destroyed by a cheap mine and drone.⁶ The tank crew were defenceless because they were equipped for the ‘wrong’ war. Likewise, bombers are history. Russian bombers don’t pound Ukrainian cities and towns. They’re vulnerable, expensive and ineffective in comparison to missiles.

Weapons are changing and so is the role of human beings. Physical strength and courage are redundant. The size of the armed forces is shrinking as sophisticated weapon systems replace them. People in the armed forces aren‘t selected for physical prowess. Sophisticated highly educated people capable of controlling complex equipment in testing circumstances are future soldiers and air force personnel. Expert gamers are more qualified for war than the courageous.

War is changing. The idea of armies slugging it out on battlefields is quaint. Winning a war on the battlefield is impossible. Technological knockout blows, on the other hand, could happen. The Holy Grail of the knock-out blow are nuclear weapons wiping out targets and not devastating the surrounding land.⁷

Interestingly, the only warfare which depends on traditional ‘values’ is asymmetric conflict. Personal courage and ingenuity are premium qualities. Flaws in defense systems of sophisticated enemies are identified and exploited. Heroes then attack. The risks are horrendous and the consequences of failure are certain death. Some guerrilla ‘soldiers’ find that attractive. This is especially the case with suicide bombers.⁸

Conclusion

Warfare without people is the direction of travel. Technological innovation is making people secondary. Chillingly, the dystopian consequence could be that as warfare without people becomes real, so might decision-making.⁹

Notes

1 Top Gun: Maverick – Wikipedia It took $1.5 billion at the box office

2 The US Air Force is turning old F-16s into pilotless AI-powered fighters | WIRED UK

3 BAE Systems Tempest – Wikipedia

4 Ukraine Using $100,000 Octocopter Drones to Destroy Russian Tanks (businessinsider.com)

5 British Challenger 2 tank hit in Ukraine – BBC News

6 British Army to get 148 Challenger 3 tanks in £800m deal – BBC News

7 theatre_nuclear_weapons_in_europe_-_ted_seay.pdf (una.org.uk)

8 The attack on the $1bn USS Cole is a good example. Two suicide bombers disabled a warship. USS Cole bombing – Wikipedia There have been numerous attacks in Britain by the IRA with the Baltic Exchange attack being notable Baltic Exchange bombing – Wikipedia

9 Chess grand masters now can’t beat the highest quality computers and so it’s possible that human strategists couldn’t understand what their ‘assistants’ are advising. Can chess grandmasters beat computers? Human vs Machine – Wegochess.com