The annexation of Crimea was a masterclass in strategic warfare. The transition from Ukraine to Russia was accomplished by subterfuge. Despite Ukrainian protests, the West metaphorically shrugged its shoulders.
Putin had learned the lesson of 1939. Poland was partitioned by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Britain and France tokenistically declared war without commitment and eight months of Phoney War began.1 Hitler contemptuously called Britain ‘worms’. He’d called their bluff and they folded like a pack of cards.
The planning and logistics of Putin’s invasion were so good, “It was over before the outside world realised it had even started.”2
The British 2014 response was 1930s appeasement,
“On 2 March 2014, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that government officials were planning to boycott the 2014 Winter Paralympics in Sochi in response to the situation in Crimea, while Prince Edward cancelled plans to travel to Sochi for the Games “on the advice of government.” These decisions did not affect Great Britain’s participation in the Games”3 (my emphasis)
Putin got the Crimean annexation exactly right. Then it imploded. He ignored all the lessons of 1939. Russia immediately followed up with an under-resourced invasion of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.4 The Ukrainians mobilised, beginning a war of attrition which led to stalemate.
The Russo-Ukrainian war steadily escalated over the next ten years. It is now a quagmire. Russia is employing mercenaries from North Korea and the West is pouring resources into the battle zones.
Putin’s brilliant 2014 victory has become a tragic proxy war with the West.
Notes
2 Russia’s Crimea plan detailed, secret and successful – BBC News
3 International reactions to the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation – Wikipedia
4 Russian invasion of Ukraine – Wikipedia
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