“I’m going to make you an offer that you can’t refuse” The Godfather 1972
Don Corleone knew exactly what he wanted and how to get it. Trump is a nincompoop who barges into situations with the subtly of a train crash.
The decapitation of the Iranian leadership on 28th February 2026 coincided with an American missile attack on a school.1 Decapitating Iran’s leadership was shrewd. It could have contributed towards the activation of internal Iranian opposition, which had been suppressed the month before..2 Slaughtering school children was a heinous war crime. And idiotic.
The Americans are bombing Iran with impunity, which looks like a strategically positive accomplishment. It isn’t. Iran’s advantage is permanent because geography doesn’t change. Unless the world pivots away from fossil fuels the Gulf’s geoeconomic importance is unchanging. Therefore, Iran’s control of the Straits of Hormuz is critical in war planning. The Iranians are stronger after this attack. This is truly counterintuitive. They have had a masterclass in strategic geography with a global impact after four weeks of control of the Straits.
Don Corleone’s threat was plausible. He was believable; so are the Iranians. Iran used the attack to punish America’s allies. Dependency on Gulf exports meant the political and economic cost of the attack was global. Iran has analysed the Ukraine-Russia war, which is fought using drones. Weak countries can be at a military disadvantage and sustain long campaigns. America’s strength is an Achilles Heel when faced with asymmetric warafre.3 All of their regional bases are targets and difficult to defend.
Gulf states don’t sell carrots. Their products are the most dangerous in the world and transported in gigantic ships. The largest of which, “…could transport enough LNG to provide gas for 4.7 million Shanghai homes for a month…”4
The Iranians don’t need to sink ships. All they need to do is say that they will. And be believed. The Gulf war has shown Iran can, and will, implement their threats. LNG ships are uninsurable, and unusable, in a war zone because they are very expensive and losses are total, “…the price for a single new LNG carrier can fall between $200 million and $250 million.”5 Blowing up a LNG tanker would create a firestorm almost nuclear in scale (see Addendum).
The War of Choice by the USA has created a stronger Iran.
Addendum: LNG ships
“…. [An exploding LNG ship produces] radiation of the fireball after 15 seconds and within 1400 m from the LNG ship, Beyond the 50% some people would die; within 1600 m over 50% he would suffer second degree burns; within 2300 m more than 50% they would be first degree. That is to say that The consequences of the explosion of expansion of boiling liquid expanding (BLEVE) they are very serious, which can cause enormous material damage and fatalities. Source: Liquefied gas ships: risk of fire and explosion – No War No Born Committee – Nato Exit
Notes
4 AiP for world’s largest LNG carrier | LR See also LNG carrier – Wikipedia
5 What Are the Startup Costs for LNG Shipping and Transportation? This doesn’t include the value of their cargoes. This could be another £250m
Odeboyz's Blog 