The CIA isn’t interested in the rights and wrongs of international conflicts. Their focus is their impact on the USA. The Gaza Conflict is interesting in this respect. It is facile to think it is tightly located there.

“Conflicts, particularly those that disrupt global trade and investment flows, might lead to rising energy prices and increased economic fragility even in countries that are not directly involved or are far removed from the conflict. For example, tourism, which is a major foreign exchange earner for Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, has fallen sharply since the onset of the Gaza conflict.²

The report then discusses the regional impact of the Israeli-Gaza conflict.

• In Iraq, Iranian-aligned militias almost certainly will continue attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.
• The Huthi’s continued ballistic missile, cruise missile, and UAV attacks against merchant vessels transiting the Red Sea, which are disrupting international shipping, and on Israel create a real risk of broader escalation.³

The CIA don’t believe Israel can fulfil its principal strategic objective, which is the elimination of HAMAS.

Moreover, Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from HAMAS for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize HAMAS’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces.⁴

The CIA believes that *regime change* in Israel offers a possibility of solving the post-war trauma

Netanyahu’s viability as leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties that pursued hardline policies on Palestinian and security issues may be in jeopardy. Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections. A different, more moderate government is a possibility.

Discussion

The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has a formidable reputation. However, that reputation might be overblown.

• IDF has control of the skies as HAMAS don’t have an air force, ground to air missile defences, or anti-aircraft artillery.
• IDF ground forces are facing HAMAS who don’t have tanks, heavy artillery, ground to ground missiles, heavy machine guns and are massively out-numbered.
• IDF faces an enemy which specialise in asymmetric warfare.
• Consequently, IDF are struggling to *win* the war. Ceaseless bombing and the systematic destruction of buildings and infrastructure have rendered Gaza a desolate ruin. Overtly IDF have succeeded but HAMAS has military capacity because it relies on asymmetric warfare, which, in turn, relies on small groups of fanatical fighters.

The Israeli government has created a classic military dilemma. They don’t have a credible exit strategy. Worse: Their only war aim, ‘eliminating HAMAS’ is implausible as HAMAS have “popular support”.⁵

Conclusion

The importance of this report can’t be overstated. The CIA is stating that the Israeli prime minister is an obstacle to peace and the war, as conceived, is unwinnable.

Notes

1 ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf (dni.gov) Senator Schumer’s speech on the Gaza Conflict shows how far Israel has lost control of the narrative. Chuck Schumer calls on Benjamin Netanyahu to step down over war on Gaza in Senate speech (youtube.com)

2 ibid p24

3 ibid p25

4 loc.cit

5 loc.cit